| About the Noise and signal in the increase and decrease of the gold prices in the gold market |
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In currency markets, capital markets, commodities and gold markets is no exception there is the term Signal Noise And that plays a role in price movement. Like when you're looking for radio waves, the waves that you turn the not so fit, the station is too weak or too far - there are crackle-crackle sound is not clear - that's Noise. Meanwhile, if you can hear very clear, then that's a real Signal. In the gold market (as well as capital markets, money markets etc.); Noise is offering an instant-issue affecting the gold price fluctuations. His name also issue - could be true, could also be wrong - even in engineering also by certain parties. The nature of short-term effect, after the issue or the cause of these short-term abated - the price of gold will return to the original trend. Examples of a second issue that becomes noise in the gold market over and over again is the (planned) release of IMF gold. Another example is the collapse of world gold prices this weekend after the U.S. unemployment data out was not as bad as predicted by the market - even though this data is also doubted by many parties. If noise can be caused by a second issue that is not necessarily true; not the case with Signal. Signal caused by fundamental reasons, and usually affects and tested in the long run. In the world gold price is calculated with the money of U.S. $ instance; the fundamental reasons that affect the world price of gold, among others yes value for money of U.S. $ itself. Currency U.S. $ is strongly influenced by U.S. economic fundamentals, the world gold price in U.S. $ is strongly influenced by the American economy. In countries such as the price of gold in Indonesia Rupiah; Signal rise and fall in the long run than the American economy depends (as international gold prices remain in U.S. $) is also of course depends on the Indonesian economy itself, for this see my article about the Gold Dinar Know Quadrant. The graph above is an example of this Noise and Signal; example I get a big noise period between March 2008 s / d in November 2008 in which period the world price of gold fell to 21% full. The reason is the issue-issue rescue the economic crisis is not clear during the period in addition to seasonal factors as well. If you are a gold investor or new dinar and only caught Noise, then you must be disappointed in that period with this decline. For example Signal is very clear that I get from the world gold price period beginning January 2000 until December 2009 or the span of 10 years, where the world gold price in U.S. dollars rose to more than 3 times as much (323%); so if you gold dinar investors or long-term oriented - chances are you have Signal capture and utilize this very clear. |
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