The price of gold in the long term, one year or more based on a statistical trend up - that the longer the time the clearer the trend of his. However, this increase does not follow a straight path, but swinging like a pendulum on the clock.

The swinging of the gold price in world market because the market mechanism in general. It is estimated that approximately 170.000 tons of gold of the world; 17% of his (28.900 tons) used for investment and approximately 18% (30.600 tons) for the central bank gold reserves, the rest for jewelry, industries, etc. The Gold for investments of about 28.900 tons is the root cause of moving this gold price swings.

While high gold prices, gold investors who want to make money (profit taking) off his gold; because this is done simultaneously by a large number of investors - the prices driven down (swing down) until a point is perceived as the lowest point.

When price is considered too low, investors in rush buy gold again that automatically push gold prices rise. Because along with the swing movement of the market mechanism is the money used to buy gold falls in value (inflation), then swing up to reach a point higher than the previous highest point.

This phenomenon can be explained by the two graphs in this paper; first graph generated by comparing the current gold price to the last month (monthly); current price to the six months prices (half yearly) and current price to the last year prices (yearly). The same is done every month for the last 10 years (120 months). The result we can see that the monthly comparisons more often swinging from positive to negative numbers and vice versa, compared with much less annual midyear.

From 120 last month which is used as a sample; shows monthly change in 38 (32%) in negative numbers, while the remaining 82 months (68%) are in positive numbers. For the period of the semester change, only 22 months (18%) of 120 in the negative - the remaining 98 months (82%) swinging in a positive number. For the period of annual changes more clearly, only 5 months (4%) of 120 months in the area of a negative swing - the remaining 115 months (96%) are in positive numbers.

What is the meaning of these numbers? if you buy gold today and sell it in the next month, then the statistical chance of your profit is 68%, 32% chance to lose. When you're selling six months of the coming opportunities in it is 82% and 18% chance to lose, and if sold 1 year to come then the chances are fortunately 96% and 4% chance to lose. This is to record the cost of capital or the cost of your fund is zero, or the money you invest is money itself. If the money you invest is from debt or lien, a different story - can be seen in my previous writings.

Apart from the opportunity factor is the average, the time factor becomes very important too. When the pendulum clock is at an end, then he will automatically swing back the opposite direction toward the other end. Consider again the graph above carefully, especially on the monthly line of yellow, in the last ten years the low end is almost always centered around the month of June that year. This is related to my previous writing about gold buying season, now we've been in August - and the pendulum clock had begun to swing back from its lowest to the highest point of the next - this time the best time to buy gold / Dinar at least based on travel statistics for the last 10 years.

Well, once again I do not mean to predict the future because only Allah who knows the science of the future. I'm just processing statistical phenomenon, and trying to understand how market mechanisms affecting the gold price swings from time to time. I could be wrong in understanding this, because many factors that influence the rise and fall of gold prices are not at all be processed or understood from the statistics.