In some of my previous writings I have used the approach moving average (moving average) to determine the trend of gold price of short-and long-term. This time I will use another approach known as trend trend or polynomial regression to predict the direction of where gold prices will move.

Although complex formula (y = b + c2x2 + c1x + c3x3 ...), but this polynomial trend function with Moving Average trend that includes the standard applications provided in excel - so easy for you to make his own analysis.

Simple way, from the collection of data you have - either self collect or retrieve from data available on the internet as of Kitco.com, display the data in excel and create graphs. Point your mouse on a line graph (right on the lines up and down) and right click - then you'll see a menu Add Trendline; after you click will display a selection trend / regression type - for example choose a polynomial. After you click OK, then the trend line will appear automatically on your graph.

For an example of this polynomial trend analysis I get from the daily gold price last three months since 1 November 2009 to predict short-term trends, and monthly average of the last 10 years since January 2000 to predict the trend of long-term gold price.

You can see the results in the two charts I present in this paper; first graph for the short term and the second for the long term. From the first graph we know that in the short term gold prices likely to fall is greater, whereas the second graph we can see that in the long run - the price of gold is more likely to rise.

Depending on the purpose of your investment whether for purposes of short-term or long term, then you can choose the appropriate graphics for the purpose