These days if you diligently follow the development of world gold prices will see an annual trend of unusual. In Rupiah current price of gold lower around 8.5% compared to the gold price last year – see graph next; otherwise if you could see the gold price in Kitco.com world – the U.S. $ gold price this morning was 15% higher than the price a year ago.

So the question is whether the current gold price of more low or high again?, Going up or going down?. Not easy to answer and even the world gold market analyst nor disagreed on this. In regard to the future price of gold, I separate the opinion of these analysts in two groups – that is a pessimistic and an optimistic (for the price of gold).

A generally pessimistic view of gold as an ordinary commodity price rises and falls according to supply and demand, they argue that the world gold price is currently high and will tend to fall. The evidence they use is the tendency of declining gold prices happened in the last two months.

After the above figure could reach U.S. $ 1,200 / Oz; current gold traded only around U.S. $ 1,093 / Oz. The reasons include the economic recovery in the United States as shown by the country's GDP growth to the IV quarter of 2009 reached the figure of 5.7% is fantastic.

At best the economy, people leaving the gold as a store of value of capital assets (preservation of capital assets) and invest it into the form of investments that have the potential to give better results. So in line with the economic recovery process in the United States that could last until 2012, so this group-even pessimistic estimates that the price of gold will tend to fall until 2012 – when it was expected that gold prices will only be around U.S. $ 750/Oz.

Groups optimist sees the same data just from the opposite perspective. Recovery is much more driven by a series of bailouts that means printing more paper money than usual. Paper money supply imposed will eventually destroy purchasing power of paper money itself. If the purchasing power of paper money falls, then all goods will rise in value – and of course the gold price.

One of the supporters of this theory is Marc Faber, as revealed in www.commodityonline.com two days ago. Fund Manager from the famous Swiss official forum is in Russia's Troika Dialog last week declared "I am convinced that the American government will go bankrupt, maybe not visiting, but before this happens they will score a lot of money – and you will face a very high inflation" .

Because the steps undertaken by the Americans in this bailout action by other countries such as England and the countries of Western Europe, so this will practically swept the financial world as a whole. What steps need to be done to anticipate this?; Marc Faber puts it simply: "one thing I will never do is sell my gold".

So how high the gold price will rise according to this optimistic group?; Estimate them several times I have quoted on this site, among others, on November 20, 2009 with the title of Exchange Rate Chaos. According to this group of gold price will reach U.S. $ 2,000 in the not too long and not so hard.

So how did my own opinion?; I tend second opinion. Although at the same time I am always reminded that in the short term gold prices will continue to flare up. Even to the agents nor Dinar; every equip them I always say to give transparent and fair picture of the prospects of this dinar to its customers. Indeed we are optimistic will tend Dinar rises in the long run, but the course will be bumpy as graphs monthly, yearly and ten yearly in this site. So in the short-term dinar prices not only go up, could also come down.

Other articles you need to read;

• Does the Euro exchange rate down drastically affect on the fall in gold prices?
• The Easiest Way to Understand and Manage The Investment Risk
• Which one is your investment choice, investment in shares or gold for the best?
• Where are the trends in gold prices towards the end of 2011?
• The World gold price booming proves the weakness of the global financial system

This entry was posted on Monday, October 31st, 2011 at 3:08 am and is filed under Gold, Gold Dinar. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.