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About Forcasting The Trend Line of Dinar Exchange Rate PDF Print

The question that continues up to me, especially from users of the new dinar is "... when buying Dinar most appropriate?". Similar questions again at such a low price right now is "... whether the price will go down again?", Then at a high price again the question is "... whether prices will continue to rise?" And so forth.

My answer is always the same, just Allah who knows best - and to Allah is the omniscient, because no matter how skilled we are, we will not know what will happen tomorrow. Which at best is that we understand what has happened up until now, then guess what will happen next. Various forecasting techniques developed by people, there is still no guarantee the accuracy of the results. 

Of the many techniques 'guess-guess' is that I like to use is the trend line analysis, because in addition to simple - in the standard Excel charts have this facility. You can also cultivate their own based on gold prices and the rupiah in the market.

Note the two graphs below example which I though based on data of gold prices in U.S. $ / Oz and prices in Rupiah / Gram. The first graph I took the last two years of data, trend line for gold prices in Rupiah convex bottom that can be taken to mean that for the last two years tend to stabilize or even decline. Conversely trend line in U.S. $, concave upward which may mean that prices are in U.S. $ tends to rise significantly. 

The second graph I get the same data, only for a longer period of 10 years. Watch it now trend line in both U.S. $ and are in Rupiah, both showed sharply concave upward. This means that in the last ten years both in the gold price in U.S. $ or Rupiah experiencing a significant upward trend.

Then what is the meaning of the two graphs are on our decisions?. For long-term funds such as savings for the hajj, the cost of school children, pension funds, savings for buying or improving homes, saving venture capital etc.. will always be suitable to be converted into dinars at anytime. 

For medium-term funds, such as the child goes to school plans in a year or two, for example - then it can be converted into dinars or remain in Rupiah, not too much difference in terms of purchasing power - albeit from the side of peace of mind may be different.

To fund the cost of short-term needs such as regular monthly, or other costs that will be used less than a year now - unless the need can be bought and paid for with Dinar - so for this short-term funds in the amount retained will be more economical. 

If your money is currently in U.S. $ different story, I really do not recommend including that you are holding U.S. $ both for the short term or long-term interests. The two graphs above convey the message loud and clear (loud and very clear) that the aircraft like a fighter pilot with the dollar, now is the time you press the button to leave the aircraft rescue and your dollar. The same message was conveyed UN-month ago, so it is not my subjective opinion.

Even this message can not be separated from the reality of U.S. $ itself is in - "print" in its various forms with a number of very, very much the last two years as indicated by the chart below. Anyway, we did not need U.S. $ as a medium of exchange, why are we holding on?.

So, the answer to the above questions depend on your investment plan or when the funds you will use, and depending also the currency of money that you now hold.

 
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